Part 3 – Calculating the odds of pulling a rarity from a certain color Note this is very, very approximate I pretty much rounded at every step and this may not be relevant anymore since these numbers are from 56 + 1 = ~18.52% chance of any random orb being green orb When we’re adding these together we get that the total odds any random orb being a green orb is 10.30 + 6.66 +. The 5-star focus pool is always dependent on the focus units for that banner for now let’s say that 1 of 3 is a green unit which would make the equation 1/3*.03 which equals ~1% Now all we need to do is add this with the odds of any random orb being a green 3-star, 5-star or 5-star focus unit using the same technique we need for the green 4-star pool, and by adding these together we get the appearance rate of green orbs. Then if we add the odds of any random orb being a 3-star, 4-star, 5-star or 5-star focus green unit together we can find the odds of any random orb being green. Number of units in specific color and rarity pool / number of units in specific rarity x in-game appearance rate of that specific rarity = the odds of any random orb being a specific color and rarity So to find the odds of random orb being a specific color and rarity of unit we can simply do this equation If we multiply this by the odds of a 4-star unit appearing which is 58% we can determine that the odds of a 4-star green unit being pulled from a random orb is ~10.30 %. That means that the odds of a 4-star being a green unit is 19/106 or ~17.76. Currently, there are 19 units in the green four star pool and 107 4 star units in total. Let’s walk through an example with 4-star green units. So because we know that the odds for each rarity of unit and we know that the game picks randomly between every unit in the rarity pool it chooses, we can use some math to discover the odds for each color orb appearing. Now for this all we not only need the in-game odds presented to us but we also need to know the amount of each different color unit in the different rarity pools. This is the first step in order to find our real appearance rate for each color. If you’re not interested in doing any math feel free to skip to the Frequently Asked Questions section below.īefore we get to the probabilities of 5-star heroes appearing, I’m going to first explain how to find the odds of each color orb appearing. This means that for each different color and for each different banner there is a true appearance rate that is different that the in-game displayed appearance rate, and in order to find that we have to do some math. Basically if we pick a random orb with our eyes closed these odds are correct.īut, Fire Emblem Heroes gives us additional information by showing us what color the hero is before we choose to summon them and since there is not an even number of each color hero in each different rarity pool the odds for summoning units of each different rarities changes depending on what color the orb is. So in this way, the in-game odds aren’t wrong but they’re just misleading they are the odds for pulling a unit if we pick without knowing its color. So for instance at base there is a 36% chance of the game picking any random 3-star hero to put in one of the 5 five orbs in the summoning circle. The game picks from one of these different pools according to these displayed odds, and then picks a hero randomly from the pool it selects just like picking a card out of a deck. These are odds that the game uses when deciding what hero to place in each different orb in the summoning circle. Which at base for most banner is as follows: So you probably have noticed by now that if you click the button called “appearance rate” on the summoning menu you will get a display showing the probability of pulling different rarities of units. I’m trying to make this the most useful resource I can so let me know if you have any questions or suggestions for me below! This is mostly intended for beginners or people who haven’t already learned about how summoning probabilities work in FEH so if you already know those things don’t expect to learn much new. This one is meant to be the definitive beginners guide to summoning probabilities (to hopefully be added to the wiki). This is a retooling of an old guide I made to summoning probabilities awhile ago.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |